We at BULLETT do not engage in political forecasting, having too often experienced the old adage, “In politics, people who make their living with crystal balls end up eating glass.”
But there is good reason that the latest poll numbers should terrify the Clinton camp and have Donald Trump downright giddy.
In every major poll, Donald Trump is either running even with Hillary Clinton or trailing well within the margin of error. The latest RCP average has Clinton leading by 3 points.
Why does this narrow margin matter?
Because Clinton should be up by at least 10 points.
Clinton’s voting base is present and accounted for. She has the overt backing of the media, the intelligentsia, Hollywood, New York, and the spurned factions of the Republican establishment.
Conversely, there is absolutely no respectable corner in America, today, where it is considered socially acceptable to vote for Donald Trump. It’s treated like an admission. Something you whisper to your best friend over far too many drinks, and then regret the next day. It’s viewed with contempt among educated people. And yet Trump is polling nearly even with Hillary Clinton.
What this tells us is that there is a lot of practiced disgust going on in America. It also tells us that Clinton’s numbers are already benefitting from peer-pressure support—the type that vanishes in the privacy of the voting booth. In a world where people are afraid to speak publicly, the voting booth is the last refuge where people feel free to do what they want—and aggressively.
Why should the Clinton camp fear this? Trump has a lot of unspoken votes among people who are hanging back.
America has always had its share of independent voters. This is the first year we’re seeing the Clark Kent voter—people who live among us as regular, smiling, bespectacled professionals. They make bland chatter at the water cooler, skip the culture wars, say all the politically correct things in mixed company, and yet give them a voting booth and they change into something else entirely—that bodes well for Donald Trump come November.